Three Reasons Why New Elections are the Absolutely Wrong Reaction to the EP Election Results

UPDATE JULY 8: After weeks of fearing a populist take-over in France, we observed a collective relief in France and Brussels last night. Thanks to a strategic positioning of the non-radical parties, the electorate placed the left coalition on the first place, Macron's coalition unexpectedly on the second, and the populist Rassemblement National on the third and last place. For now, French democracy got off with a slap on the wrist. However, the past weeks illustrated how much the French populists control the democratic discourse in France and the EU. Even though these elections can be interpreted as a victory for democracy, the fact that this snap election occured in the very first place must be seen as a gain for French populists.

Also, the snap election results change nothing about the EP election results and the fact, that French populist form a significantly big group in the EP for the next legislative period in Brussels. On top, France faces a leadership crisis now due to the split majorities not supporting the President.

UPDATE JULY 1: As expected in this blog-post less than three weeks ago, the snap elections in France have backfired in the first electoral process on June 30. Marine Le Pen became strongest power with her nationalist party and Macron with his coalition is defeated as the third-strongest power. With this results, Le Pen and her Rassemblement National are standing in front of the gates of power now. For the run-off elections next weekend, the French voters have to unite behind the second-placed, very left coalition in order to prevent the nationalist from taking over power. However, it is questionable how many French put up with a left government only to prevent a nationalist one.

Only a few hours after the election results were made public, French President Macron dissolved the Assemblée Nationale and announced snap elections for this summer. Also, in Germany, the lack of support for the government parties during the EU elections sparked a debate about new national elections.

New national elections are the wrong reaction to the EP election results for three reasons.

Source: https://www.thestreet.com/.image/t_share/MTY3NTQxMjI5NTQxOTkyMzM0/image-placeholder-title.png

1. EP elections are on the European level, not the national one.

Yes, European politics are closely tied to national politics. Yes, competencies overlap, and there is no clear line between the successes and failures of national and European politics. However, the EP elections ask citizens to judge and vote for their representatives in Brussels, not in their national governments. While they might be very unhappy with a party’s work in their capital, politicians of the same party might do a great job in Brussels and vice versa. Thus, the assessment of national and European politics must be differentiated. This is a complex differentiation to understand and make, especially for the average citizen. However, national governments announcing new national elections after European elections don’t help distinguish between the two overlapping political spheres.

2. Parties in national governments "naturally" lose in EP elections.

If you look at EP elections over the past 20 years and compare them to national elections, you can observe that the parties in government systematically perform worse in EP elections than in national elections. We observe this pattern because of the citizens’ perception of European elections. Firstly, many citizens still don’t take the European elections as seriously as national ones and see them as additional or unnecessary. This leads to, secondly, lower participation compared to national elections, mostly favoring opposition parties. Also, due to the misconception of the national and European political sphere, voters often use EP elections to “punish” national politicians. Together, these factors explain why national parties in government perform pretty poorly in European elections.

Basically, badly performing government parties are part of European elections’ political and social nature.

3. France is risking a Brexit 2.0 scenario.

When I first heard about the new election plans in France, it triggered PTSD tracing back to Cameron in 2013. Like in the case of Cameron, this plan is a highly risky political maneuver, hoping to get the people’s support and confidence. As the Brexit referendum has shown, though, this maneuver can backfire VERY hard. The political atmosphere in France is critical, exaggerated by the Olympics, and we know how dramatic the French people can be when it comes to political dissatisfaction (I just mention #JeChieDansLaSeineLe23Juin here). The chances are high that the French people will not give Macron the support he needs and expects. Then, a very likely result could be a French government led by Marie Le Pen.

Yes, the EP election results are concerning. They are frustrating for the parties in government. And yes, these results cannot be ignored but must be seen as an alarm. However, new national elections are not the right answer because they reinforce the wrong conception of national and European politics that many citizens have. Instead, the fundamental issues in Europe, such as a failing migration policy and a brave handling of international conflicts, must be addressed to win back citizens for the European idea.