Is the Election over now?

With Trump’s attempted assassination, the US election campaign has reached a new level. My initial reaction: “An assassination of Trump would save the country or trigger a civil war:” The truth probably lies somewhere in between but for sure does not put a premature end to the 2024 election.

Source: https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2024/07/politics/photographers-trump-shooting-cnnphotos/

The US election campaign is dirty. Much dirtier than in most European democracies. However, an attempted assassination is also for the US a level of political campaign that most people thought was overcome decades ago. And it shifts the sentiment of the 2024 election.

Staged or not

As of now, we have a few facts and lots of theories. For the campaigns’ tenor, the background does not matter, though. It doesn’t matter if the young student was a confused individual trying to play the hero, if it was a desperate try to put an end to Trump’s political career from an anti-Trump grouping, if it was the Russians who want to manipulate the 2024 election in favor for Trump, or if the Republicans staged it. In any case, this attempted assassination feeds Trump’s narrative of being the victim. Because for the first time, he actually was.

Effect on the Election

As the attack on Trump proves, the 2024 election campaign is unpredictable. Another crisis might occur, and sentiments will shift again. However, we can learn from other countries. Looking at Brazil, Bolsonaro’s votes significantly increased shortly after he was violently attacked. Something similar we can expect for Trump’s case now, rooted in citizens solidarizing with the victim of violence. Even though you might not have elected him before, now you do to show your support against violence. Additionally, Trump’s heroic reaction while leaving the stage after being shot supports this perception.

Call for Unity from all Sides

Astonishingly, Trump and Biden’s initial reactions were similar, both calling for unity. While we have a broad idea of how to interpret “unity” from the Democratic side, it is questionable who exactly Trump wants to unite, his electorate or the US citizens. Regarding his past actions (I drop January 6th here), primarily uniting his voters is a realistic scenario. Thus, Trump’s further course of action significantly shapes the future path of the US: He might be able to calm down his supporters and install a less violent form of political discourse from now on and a more benevolent tone. He might also be able to organize a second storm of the Capitol.

Is the Election decided now?

No, it’s not. The assassination attempt supports Trump’s narrative of being a victim of the democratic system. This confirmation might also be decisive for the formerly undecided voters, but it is particularly true for Trump supporters. Trumpists feel like their perspective is ultimately confirmed now. Nonetheless, Trump is still a convicted criminal who ignored rule and law, who abused his power as President, and who initiated a coup d’etat on his own country’s government. Even though the scenes in Pennsylvania will never be forgotten and are harshly judged also by the democratic side, this does not translate into unconditional Trump support by all Americans. Still, the critique of him and his actions persists.

Eventually, the current situation does not promise a democratic win. Nevertheless, calling the election to be over is a premature move and underestimates the dynamic of US election campaigns.